Louisville lost because they recruit about 40th best to 45th best in America on average over the last 4 years. They don't have the depth when injuries take hold. Depth explains why many teams get stronger in their conferences down the stretxh and why some usually trend down. Oklahoma seems to improve year by year down the stretch as well as Bama, Clemson, even USC. It's not that they have improved way beyond their opponents, but the injuries that take hold causes their opponents to drop off. These teams above number two guys (second stringers) are far and away better than their opponents second stringers. The inverse of the above is true with teams like Louisville, WVU, even VT in the 2000s.
When the college season starts, it is teams As best 22 players vs team Bs best 22 players. By the time the season is nearly over, team A will have on average 5 second string players starting due to injury, suspension, etc., vs team B who on average, will have 5 second stringers starting. That is approximately a 24% difference from the start of the season compared to the end of the season. That approximate 24% difference makes a HUGE difference and explains why a 10th ranked recruiting Oklahoma team finishes strong in the Big 12 and a 40th ranked recruiting Louisville falls off at the end.
It's not coaching. It's not play calling. Coaches don't magically have the gift of play calling through 7 or 8 games, then mysteriously lose the gift in the final 4-5 games. Coaches aren't confused out of their minds how to stop a good great QB for the first 7-8 games, and then whoolaaa, they solve it at game 8. It's depth, or lack of it that MOSTLY explains (not always, but mostly) why teams trend up or down in the last third of the season.
