There are exceptions (Frank Beamer being one) but usually you can tell by a coach's third year on the job whether or not the program is going in the right direction. That doesn't necessarily mean Top 10 or challenging for conference titles. For some schools it could mean a 6-6 season in the third year after 2-10 and 3-9 records in the first two. Other times the reverse is true. Say you have 10-2 and 9-3 seasons your first two years on the job but slump to 6-6. This, to me, would be a sign that the program is going in the wrong direction.