I see good things in a loss.

[BigDaddyHokie]

Our young and thin team gave #4 Duke a scare tonight. Buzz will make our program a real force in the ACC and in college basketball soon.



This post was edited on 2/26 10:00 AM by BigDaddyHokie

 

[Hoos19NC]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

I was pulling hard for VT....would have all but wrapped up ACC for Hoos. Boys played hard and those 3's made it real interesting. Good effort for sure....see you guys Sat.

 

[Hampton Roads 6]

Re: I see good things in a lose.


We are not that far away. Both Duke and the guys to our North are ranked in top 5. Both we lucky to leave Blacksburg with a win. Hopefully we can go to John Paul's place and win.

 

[sknyluv]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

I was also pullin' for you guys last night. Had a chance to put it away in regulation. Had a bad feeling that Duke was gonna pull away in OT.

But you really can't say how "far away" this team is. Next years team is gonna be completely different, with transfers sitting out and recruits coming in. There's no way to compare them to this years team. That said, this squad doesn't quit and plays like there is nothing to lose. They are really fun to watch. Well ... most of the time.

 

[mrjolly01]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

Originally posted by sknyluv:
I was also pullin' for you guys last night. Had a chance to put it away in regulation. Had a bad feeling that Duke was gonna pull away in OT.

But you really can't say how "far away" this team is. Next years team is gonna be completely different, with transfers sitting out and recruits coming in. There's no way to compare them to this years team. That said, this squad doesn't quit and plays like there is nothing to lose. They are really fun to watch. Well ... most of the time.

But I think we can very confidently say at this point that we're much closer now than we were last year. What we "know" now is we have a really big improvement in coaching and a few core players who can play in this league. To this core we have five known additions coming next season, at least some of which should have a very significant impact on improving next year's edition. And word has it that Buzz isn't finished recruiting for next season yet. So I would say we are most definitely getting closer. If we were a stock I would want to buy a big chunk of it.

 

[VTSmitty]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

Originally posted by sknyluv:
I was also pullin' for you guys last night. Had a chance to put it away in regulation. Had a bad feeling that Duke was gonna pull away in OT.

But you really can't say how "far away" this team is. Next years team is gonna be completely different, with transfers sitting out and recruits coming in. There's no way to compare them to this years team. That said, this squad doesn't quit and plays like there is nothing to lose. They are really fun to watch. Well ... most of the time.

Yeah, they played with heart. But as you say, next year's team will be completely different. They were on fire from three. But, those streaks are few and far apart.

 

[Hoos19NC]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

You are better but still have a long way to go to reach the top of the ACC......might want to shoot for the middle of the pack next.

 

[1bburgfan]

Re: I see good things in a lose.


We shoot for the top this weekend

 

[Otis4411]

Re: I see good things in a lose.


VT really played well against Duke. When your big man fouled out that was it.

 

[BigDaddyHokie]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

Next year, and even more so every year in the future, we'll have more, and better, athletes to get minutes and play intensive D and work the Buzz O better.

This post was edited on 2/26 8:56 PM by BigDaddyHokie

 

[mrjolly01]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

Originally posted by Otis4411:

VT really played well against Duke. When your big man fouled out that was it.

Yeah, I thought he really did okay. I was surprised Buzz chose to guard Okafor one on one, and Satch lasted much later into the game than I would have ever thought playing against Okafor who is a handful for anyone. Those minutes will provide invaluable experience in Satch's growth as a player. It wouldn't surprise me if we don't see him start stepping up his contribution some right away just from the confidence of playing a full game against a talent like Okafor. He doesn't have anyone in practice to challenge him that way.

 

[Hoos19NC]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

Really....Okafor had a career high 30 points, don't believe the decision not to double team him was such a good one.

 

[mrjolly01]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

Originally posted by Hoos19NC:
You are better but still have a long way to go to reach the top of the ACC......might want to shoot for the middle of the pack next.

Yeah, jumping from last to first in one season would really make Buzz a basketball coach god. I think we can realistically hope to push up to 9 ACC wins next season. We should start closing out home wins but the question will be how much we improve on the road, where we really haven't been competitive yet for the most of this season. The ridiculous letdowns to the Radfords and Appy States will finally be behind us though, and with 8 or 9 ACC wins an NIT berth is looking like a realistic early goal for next season. That of course is all dependent on how some of the newcomers play and particularly how much we can improve on the boards.

 

[mrjolly01]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

Originally posted by Hoos19NC:
Really....Okafor had a career high 30 points, don't believe the decision not to double team him was such a good one.

Again, that's a decision about picking your poison. If he had doubled Okafor and they shot in more 3's you'd have been on here posting that you didn't understand why he let them shoot so many uncontested 3's.

 

[Hoos19NC]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

VT getting to .500 in the ACC is a realistic goal for next season.

 

[Hoos19NC]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

I would agree jolly except Duke made 10 Three's while Okafor got 30...... Now don't get me wrong, VT played hard against a very good team. I just don't see bragging on a guy that gave up a career high to the guy he was guarding.

 

[mrjolly01]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

Originally posted by Hoos19NC:
I would agree jolly except Duke made 10 Three's while Okafor got 30...... Now don't get me wrong, VT played hard against a very good team. I just don't see bragging on a guy that gave up a career high to the guy he was guarding.

I'm confused then by what you mean, because "bragging" IMO is a pretty strong way to describe the comments I made about him. What did I say specifically to make you say that? Also, what's to say that Duke wouldn't have gotten more three's then they did if Buzz doubled Okafor. I'm not sure what you are arguing for now.

 

[pckank1]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

Anyone know what our OOC schedule looks like next year? If we do get good again, I hope we improve our OOC schedule because we will never smell the tourney with an OOC schedule like this year (290th SOS). Md. Eastern Shore, Miami (Oh), VMI, Presbyterian, The Citadel, Alabama A&M, Morgan St., Liberty, Radford, and Appy St. were 10 of our 13 OOC games. I don't care if we are rebuilding....that is inexcusable. Maybe a better OOC schedule this year would have prepared us a little better for ACC play? Also, maybe a better OOC schedule would get more fans out early and get them excited about the program.

 

[Hampton Roads 6]

Re: I see good things in a lose.


I agree, that OOC schedule is rather weak. No ACC school should play that weak of schedule.

 

[mrjolly01]

Re: I see good things in a lose.


Yeah, that OOC schedule was awful. I assume that was mostly the product of JJ and Weaver knowing that the team was going to be crap. I don't think Buzz had much time to do anything about it coming in when he did. Buzz is on record saying he didn't like having to play an OOC schedule like that and that the OOC schedules will be improved. Not sure when we will see the next one though. I agree with you that a better OOC schedule is better for preparing the team for ACC play and would be more interesting to fans. I expect you will still have a few cupcakes since all teams play them, but certainly not 10 of them. One thing I hope is that Buzz will step up the state schools we play. I think we should be playing at least two out of Richmond, VCU, Mason, ODU every year. Those are good basketball programs and I disagree with Greenberg's old philosophy that those are games we have nothing to win and everything to lose. It may come in handy when March rolls around and we're a bubble team along with any from that group - a win for us in those games may mean the difference between first 4 in and first 4 out.

 

[Hoos19NC]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

You guys are dead on with the OOC schedule. If you go .500 in the ACC you have to have a couple of quality wins OOC to get off that bubble or maybe to even be on the bubble. I suspect Buzz will change that as soon as he can.

 

[pckank1]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

Originally posted by mrjolly01:

Yeah, that OOC schedule was awful. I assume that was mostly the product of JJ and Weaver knowing that the team was going to be crap. I don't think Buzz had much time to do anything about it coming in when he did. Buzz is on record saying he didn't like having to play an OOC schedule like that and that the OOC schedules will be improved. Not sure when we will see the next one though. I agree with you that a better OOC schedule is better for preparing the team for ACC play and would be more interesting to fans. I expect you will still have a few cupcakes since all teams play them, but certainly not 10 of them. One thing I hope is that Buzz will step up the state schools we play. I think we should be playing at least two out of Richmond, VCU, Mason, ODU every year. Those are good basketball programs and I disagree with Greenberg's old philosophy that those are games we have nothing to win and everything to lose. It may come in handy when March rolls around and we're a bubble team along with any from that group - a win for us in those games may mean the difference between first 4 in and first 4 out.

Good post. I agree with you about the state programs. A lot of them are good, well coached teams, and it would only make us better if we played more of them. And, since many of these teams are usually prettty good, playing a couple of them instead of playing so many 300+ RPI teams could go along way toward helping our SOS and top 50 and top 100 RPI wins numbers if and when we get back to worrying about the tourney. Even a top 150 team like JMU would be a lot better than playing another sub 300 team.

 

[Hampton Roads 6]

Re: I see good things in a lose.


No ACC school should play a 300+ RPI team.

 

[mrjolly01]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

Originally posted by pckank1:

Originally posted by mrjolly01:

Yeah, that OOC schedule was awful. I assume that was mostly the product of JJ and Weaver knowing that the team was going to be crap. I don't think Buzz had much time to do anything about it coming in when he did. Buzz is on record saying he didn't like having to play an OOC schedule like that and that the OOC schedules will be improved. Not sure when we will see the next one though. I agree with you that a better OOC schedule is better for preparing the team for ACC play and would be more interesting to fans. I expect you will still have a few cupcakes since all teams play them, but certainly not 10 of them. One thing I hope is that Buzz will step up the state schools we play. I think we should be playing at least two out of Richmond, VCU, Mason, ODU every year. Those are good basketball programs and I disagree with Greenberg's old philosophy that those are games we have nothing to win and everything to lose. It may come in handy when March rolls around and we're a bubble team along with any from that group - a win for us in those games may mean the difference between first 4 in and first 4 out.

Good post. I agree with you about the state programs. A lot of them are good, well coached teams, and it would only make us better if we played more of them. And, since many of these teams are usually prettty good, playing a couple of them instead of playing so many 300+ RPI teams could go along way toward helping our SOS and top 50 and top 100 RPI wins numbers if and when we get back to worrying about the tourney. Even a top 150 team like JMU would be a lot better than playing another sub 300 team.

JMU's okay too. I would actually include one OOC game a year from a second group of in state teams from JMU, VMI, or W&M. That way we'd have 3 in state schools each year rotating them from a first and second tier group. I'd also include WVU every year since its a rivalry game and usually a good RPI and resume builder. Those games would lock up 4 OOC games each year. For example Richmond, ODU, JMU, WVU would make a nice stretch of December games to get us all in the holiday spirit and lead into the ACC season.

 

[pckank1]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

With 13 OOC games, we could play 3 in state teams (2 of which are usually good), home and homes with 4 quality or power conference teams (2 home and 2 away each year with 1 being WVU), and still have 6 home cupcakes (trying to keep these inside of the 300 RPI number if possible). There is no way of knowing where an opponent's RPI might end up, but some teams have a history of being above or near the 300 spot, so stay away from those.
Comparing that with this year's schedule:

This year, we played 3 quality or power conference teams (No. Iowa, WVU, Penn St.), 2 games against RPI 101-200, 3 games against RPI 201-300, and 5 against 300+ RPI teams.

The goal, using the example at the top, should be to have 6 quality or power conference teams (counting 2 in state (or D.C.) teams like Richmond, VCU, GW, W&M), maybe 2 RPI teams from 101-200, and 5 from 201-300. We should be able to count on 4 of the top 6 being in the RPI top 100, and while the bottom 7 might end up above 100 or below 300, more often than not you should be able to tell what teams would be hovering around here.

Instead of:

RPI 0-50: 2 opponents
RPI 51-100: 0
RPI 101-200: 3
RPI 201-300: 3
RPI 301+: 5

We should try for:

RPI 0-50: 2
RPI 51-100: 2
RPI 101-200: 4
RPI 201-300: 5
RPI 301+: 0

 

[mrjolly01]

Re: I see good things in a lose.


Normally you are going to play in 1 or even 2 early season tournaments than can be anywhere from 2-4 games. In those cases you will end up with the RPI's of your tournament opponents which might be a little hard to plan, but some tournament fields are stronger than others. For wild guess let's say you have a total of 4 tournament games fairly evenly spread over the RPI range from 1 to 250 and you get an average of 125 out of those games. Then, by playing 3 in state and WVU should average somewhere in the 75 range. Now together you have an average of about 100 RPI over 8 games. You wouldn't need 6 home games with cupcakes because you only have 5 left, and still haven't accounted for any single games outside of the tournaments-state-WVU games. Of those remaining 5 I try to schedule 3 decent opponents, maybe a couple of power 5, and an A10 or Big East. Not bluebloods though because you don't need them with all the conference bluebloods we play. The remaining 2 can be cupcakes from the 250+ range, one as a season opener and another as a filler somewhere within the OOC schedule. It would be cutting it close, but I think overall if you win 8 of the 13 against that OOC and go .500 in the ACC with a couple of signature wins and no real bad losses you can get into the NCAA tournament. May need one ACC tournament win also by cutting it that close, but my point is that your SOS would elevate you into the discussion in that situation maybe more so than playing more cupcakes with the same number of ACC wins.

 

[VT/UK Rondo]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

Good Lord...yeah VT needs to beef up its schedule...the current ACC schedule is no longer challenging enough and beating the likes of Richmond and VCU will make the world marvel at VT basketball. smh

Better plan: Let Buzz get his feet under him with a few classes, let his young teams get some age on them and some confidence by beating cupcakes and trying to get above .500 in the ACC first.

Everybody wants to think how beneficial it would be to BEAT OOC opponents but nobody is thinking how damging it could be for a young team like this to LOSE to a Richmond or a VCU...

baby steps...

 

[mrjolly01]

Re: I see good things in a lose.


Yeah, good lord, this team would never recover from the damage a loss to VCU or Richmond would do. What could we possibly be thinking for suggesting such a thing, lol.

 

[pckank1]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

Originally posted by mrjolly01:

Yeah, good lord, this team would never recover from the damage a loss to VCU or Richmond would do. What could we possibly be thinking for suggesting such a thing, lol.

I was thinking the same thing. We lost to Radford and Appy St., but somehow a loss to a Richmond team that has been good for awhile now and made the Sweet 16 a few years ago, and a VCU team that made the final four a few years ago, and has been ranked all year would damage their egos???

 

[pckank1]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

Originally posted by mrjolly01:

Normally you are going to play in 1 or even 2 early season tournaments than can be anywhere from 2-4 games. In those cases you will end up with the RPI's of your tournament opponents which might be a little hard to plan, but some tournament fields are stronger than others. For wild guess let's say you have a total of 4 tournament games fairly evenly spread over the RPI range from 1 to 250 and you get an average of 125 out of those games. Then, by playing 3 in state and WVU should average somewhere in the 75 range. Now together you have an average of about 100 RPI over 8 games. You wouldn't need 6 home games with cupcakes because you only have 5 left, and still haven't accounted for any single games outside of the tournaments-state-WVU games. Of those remaining 5 I try to schedule 3 decent opponents, maybe a couple of power 5, and an A10 or Big East. Not bluebloods though because you don't need them with all the conference bluebloods we play. The remaining 2 can be cupcakes from the 250+ range, one as a season opener and another as a filler somewhere within the OOC schedule. It would be cutting it close, but I think overall if you win 8 of the 13 against that OOC and go .500 in the ACC with a couple of signature wins and no real bad losses you can get into the NCAA tournament. May need one ACC tournament win also by cutting it that close, but my point is that your SOS would elevate you into the discussion in that situation maybe more so than playing more cupcakes with the same number of ACC wins.

8 out of 13 OOC and 9-9 in the ACC would leave us at 17-14 before the ACC tourney, so if and when we get to 9-9 in the ACC, we would need to win at least 10 of our 13 OOC games to at least give us a shot at 19-12. To feel safer, we would probably need to go 10-3 OOC against a good schedule with a couple of quality wins, and 10-8 in the ACC for an overall record of 20-11 heading into the ACC tourney.

6 home cupcakes are fine if the other 7 OOC games are against a combination of decent to good teams. If we play in a good tourney in November, that can replace some of the 7 OOC games against good teams. Very few teams have less than 6 home "gimmes", so it would be foolish for us to have less, but, of course, 10 of them like this year is way too many.

 

[Hoos19NC]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

The ACC not challenging enough.......maybe they should play the mighty SEC ....hell, even VT would be .500 or better in that cupcake conference.

 

[mrjolly01]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

Originally posted by pckank1:

Originally posted by mrjolly01:

Normally you are going to play in 1 or even 2 early season tournaments than can be anywhere from 2-4 games. In those cases you will end up with the RPI's of your tournament opponents which might be a little hard to plan, but some tournament fields are stronger than others. For wild guess let's say you have a total of 4 tournament games fairly evenly spread over the RPI range from 1 to 250 and you get an average of 125 out of those games. Then, by playing 3 in state and WVU should average somewhere in the 75 range. Now together you have an average of about 100 RPI over 8 games. You wouldn't need 6 home games with cupcakes because you only have 5 left, and still haven't accounted for any single games outside of the tournaments-state-WVU games. Of those remaining 5 I try to schedule 3 decent opponents, maybe a couple of power 5, and an A10 or Big East. Not bluebloods though because you don't need them with all the conference bluebloods we play. The remaining 2 can be cupcakes from the 250+ range, one as a season opener and another as a filler somewhere within the OOC schedule. It would be cutting it close, but I think overall if you win 8 of the 13 against that OOC and go .500 in the ACC with a couple of signature wins and no real bad losses you can get into the NCAA tournament. May need one ACC tournament win also by cutting it that close, but my point is that your SOS would elevate you into the discussion in that situation maybe more so than playing more cupcakes with the same number of ACC wins.

8 out of 13 OOC and 9-9 in the ACC would leave us at 17-14 before the ACC tourney, so if and when we get to 9-9 in the ACC, we would need to win at least 10 of our 13 OOC games to at least give us a shot at 19-12. To feel safer, we would probably need to go 10-3 OOC against a good schedule with a couple of quality wins, and 10-8 in the ACC for an overall record of 20-11 heading into the ACC tourney.

6 home cupcakes are fine if the other 7 OOC games are against a combination of decent to good teams. If we play in a good tourney in November, that can replace some of the 7 OOC games against good teams. Very few teams have less than 6 home "gimmes", so it would be foolish for us to have less, but, of course, 10 of them like this year is way too many.

I'm guessing the real number of cupcakes will probably be somewhere in between when we see Buzz's schedules. If he studies our past he will see that we were left out of the NCAA fields when we were a bubble team with as many as 6 cupcakes on our schedule. Also, a quick glance at some other ACC schedules I'm not seeing more than 4-5 cupcakes on any of the schedules I looked at so far. (Some of that also depends on who you count as cupcake of course). I'm sensitive to having too many cupcakes since its so often been used as a reason to leave our bubble teams out of the NCAA, and for every cupcake you add you lose RPI and a resume win opportunity. Personally I would absolutely limit the cupcakes to no more than four just based on what I've seen the committees do in the past. They seem to reward SOS and quality wins over the number of wins, and also give strong consideration to the strength of the conference in the given year - and I've seen teams with 17-18 wins get selected over teams with 20+ wins.

 

[Hoos19NC]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

Dead on Jolly......Quality wins are more important than number of wins, especially if a lot of those wins are cupcakes.

 

[pckank1]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

mrjolly,

I used the wrong word earlier. My saying "cupcakes" was too dramatic. By cupcakes, I am talking home games against teams we should beat. Some might not be true below 200 RPI cupcakes, but most ACC teams have about 6 of these OOC games on their schedules. If you look at my earlier example, I mentioned it would be good to play no more than 5 below 200 RPI teams and 0 below 300 RPI teams, so I agree with you that 4 or 5 true garbage teams should be the limit every year.

 

[mrjolly01]

Re: I see good things in a lose.


Yep, when I say cupcake I'm really referring to a team which SHOULD be (obviously not necessarily for us the last 3 years) an obvious blowout opponent, i.e. Appy State, Longwood, Furman, USC Upstate, Md Eastern Shore, Radford etc. Six of those on our schedule never get us in off the bubble. We gotta mix in some better programs if we want to dance for these committees.

 

[VT/UK Rondo]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

Originally posted by Hoos19NC:
The ACC not challenging enough.......maybe they should play the mighty SEC ....hell, even VT would be .500 or better in that cupcake conference.

Nobodys saying the SEC is a tough conference, goofball...

Simple question: Was it losing to VCU, Wisconsin, WisconsinGB and Tennessee by 40 or winning the ACC that landed UVA a #1 seed in the tourney last year.

Point is, win the ACC or at least beat some of the bigboys in the ACC (convincingly) and you dont have to supplement your schedule with OOC games. They become irrelevant!. Even in years when the ACC is down, the media bias (same as SEC football) will get you to the tourney as long as your in the top 5-6 teams.

learn to take a compliment

 

[Hoos19NC]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

You can't have an entire OOC schedule full of cupcakes and expect to get into the tournament without winning your conference and/or tournament. UVA overcame early season loses by getting hot and winning the regular season and tournament. If they had gone .500 in conference they would have been a bubble team at best......play VT's OCC and go .500 in ACC your bubble will burst.

 

[VT/UK Rondo]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

Originally posted by Hoos19NC:
You can't have an entire OOC schedule full of cupcakes and expect to get into the tournament without winning your conference and/or tournament. UVA overcame early season loses by getting hot and winning the regular season and tournament. If they had gone .500 in conference they would have been a bubble team at best......play VT's OCC and go .500 in ACC your bubble will burst.

But UVA didnt go .500 in conference and it was obvious by mid Feb that they were going to the tourney no matter if they won the the conference or tourney. Actually after beating UNC and then Pitt on the road it would have been hard to leave them out. The ACC is going to send 5-7 teams. And besides, If its that hard to make the tourney is adding a Richmond, a Charlotte, a James Madison etc...really going to impress anyone?

VT wins their OOC games this year, splits series with the best in the ACC while not getting blown out any, goes a few games into the tourney and they get a NCAA invite.

 

[pckank1]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

VT's OOC schedule is ranked 299th right now. They would have needed a very impressive ACC season to make the tourney with that OOC schedule. Probably at least 11-7 and maybe 12-6, with at least 3 wins over the top teams. Richmond's RPI is 64 right now, so yes, a win over a team like that would help dramatically more than another win over a 300+ RPI team. GW is 87, W&M is 101, and JMU is 137, so playing them instead of a 300+ team would also help a lot.

NC St. is 8-8 in the ACC and 17-12 overall. If they do not win the ACC tourney, they will have at least 13 losses, but they have an OOC SOS of 25, and have a real good chance to make the tourney because, along with some good ACC wins, they have OOC wins over 28 RPI Boise, 55 La. Tech, and 64 Richmond, 7 of their OOC opponents have a top 100 RPI, and only 4 of their OOC games were against teams with above 200 RPIs. If they had VT's OOC SOS of 299, which includes only 2 top 100 and 8 below 200 RPI teams, they would not have a chance with 13+ losses.

 

[Hampton Roads 6]

Re: I see good things in a lose.


I could not believe we lost to BC last night. That may have been our worst game of the season.