In the offseason, look for Big 12 to expand. BYU will be 1st team added

[lucustookis]

Based on todays results, look for the Big 12 to expand. It has been discussed within the conference anyway and based on today's results, this may be the event that pushes them to the point of adding 2 more teams. They may try and petition the NCAA first for a conference title game with only 10 teams, but it will likely not be allowed. They will have to take 2 more. BYU is obviously the logical first choice based on the BYU and the Big 12 having talks in the past 24 months, and BYU has the money which counts. Being owned by the very wealthy LDS Church, they have their own TV network for heavens sake just like Texas, and they have fielded competitive teams in about every sport in NCAA athletics, not to mention the national reach this will add to the Big 12. I think if they expand (and I think they will) BYU is obvious. The real question is the 12th team they get? There isn't much to choose from that I can think of?

1. Memphis-I don't see it.
2. Colorado State. Just not competitive enough in the other sports
3. West Virginia's other team? Marshall? Interesting choice as they are already in the state of WV, of course, they only get a decent football team to the conference which will broaden its base more and if Marshall got in, their recruiting would definitely go up, but basketball, baseball, volleyball? Way, way non-competitive.
4. Louisiana Tech, Monroe or Lafayette?
5. SMU? This 2014 SMU is not in the ballpark as the 1980 SMU. Things have obviously changed since the early 80's.
6. Air Force? That would be interesting
7. Tulsa
8. Cincy?

Seriously, I don't know what they get with the 12th team. I think BYU is an easy choice. But the last team? Perhaps they beg for A and M to come back home or perhaps the politicians get involved and demand SMU? Tough position for Big 12 and they are probably praying for the NCAA to allow them a conference title game, but if it does not happen, things will get interesting in the off-season. For the Big 12 to do nothing....as in not ask the NCAA for a conference title game and to not expand would be foolish.

 

[Flashman]

The 12th team will be Houston if there's any expansion. Major metro area. Former Texas AD DeLoss Dodds was the one responsible for keeping the Cougars (and TCU) out of the Big XII all these years and he's retired now. They're also building a new stadium on-campus.

This post was edited on 12/7 10:59 PM by Flashman

 

[um1978grad]

Good post OP, I think you may be right, and if they will look to add teams BYU will be the top candidate. After that I would think Cincinnati would be close to the top of the list. They made a huge mistake not adding Louisville when they had the chance IMO. As well as choosing to add WVU, but that's a different story. I also don't think they will look to add more TX teams like SMU or Houston, too many TX teams to begin with, I can guarantee you the non TX schools don't want any more.


Also there are some clear motives behind not expanding, there is no way the teams they add will add more revenue than they take of the pie. Right now they split it 10 ways, allowing them to be at least close to the higher revenue generating leagues in revenue per school, but if they increase to 12 it is guaranteed to decrease that, making them fall behind the B1G and SEC even more long term in revenue per team, which then only adds more to league instability creating a higher likelihood of TX and OK leaving for the SEC for example. If they believe the playoff will be expanded to 8 soon, it makes a lot more sense to not expand. So it's not necessarily a clear cut decision one way or the other.


This post was edited on 12/7 11:34 PM by um1978grad

 

[Hampton Roads 6]

Excellent post and observations. Personally I wish ncaa would eliminate conference championship games.. they are nothing but a money racket . and screw up balanced schedules within conference .

 

[PACKed House]

Television market shares will determine who they go after.

 

[Hampton Roads 6]

Before doing anything I think they might need to get a new commissioner. That guy they have now screwed the conference by taking sides with TCU in the past week to 10 days, and ignoring Baylor's win over TCU . Biggest puzzle is Big 12 had a rep on committee in Oliver Luck, who apparently had very little influence.

 

[pckank1]

Cincinnati is an obvious choice. They are in a good TV market, have good football and basketball programs, come from a state that has a lot of high school talent, and fit in geographically between Iowa St. and WVU. But, if you add Cincy, you need to add another team, and it seems like the 2 options would be BYU and UCF.

BYU brings good sports programs, but does not bring a big TV market, and would be away geographically from everyone else. Central Florida, like Cincy a good TV market, would get the Big 12 into Florida, and would be a slightly better fit geographically, keeping everyone either in Texas, north of Texas, or east of Texas. So, if I were the Big 12, I would add Cincy and UCF.

 

[Hampton Roads 6]

Cincy would be a good choice, probably the best choice. I think UCF is too far away from Big 12 country.

 

[um1978grad]

Originally posted by pckank1:

BYU brings good sports programs, but does not bring a big TV market, and would be away geographically from everyone else.

Not true, there are 6 million Mormons in the US. BYU would bring more TV sets than virtually any other realistic addition, they already have their own TV network like Texas does, and is about the same distance to the Texas schools while being closer to their Midwest schools.

 

[Hampton Roads 6]

I think TV markets are over rated.

 

[vtpmt81]

Cincy is a easy pick - good basketball and football

I don't think BYU will join the Big 12 - plus you have schedule games so that they don't play on Sundays.

I think Memphis, San Diego State, and Houston are also good teams to consider.

 

[Hampton Roads 6]

San Diego State is too far west for Big 12.

 

[Flashman]

Originally posted by pckank1:
Cincinnati is an obvious choice. They are in a good TV market, have good football and basketball programs, come from a state that has a lot of high school talent, and fit in geographically between Iowa St. and WVU. But, if you add Cincy, you need to add another team, and it seems like the 2 options would be BYU and UCF.

BYU brings good sports programs, but does not bring a big TV market, and would be away geographically from everyone else. Central Florida, like Cincy a good TV market, would get the Big 12 into Florida, and would be a slightly better fit geographically, keeping everyone either in Texas, north of Texas, or east of Texas. So, if I were the Big 12, I would add Cincy and UCF.

Houston is a much better fit geographically than Cincinnati or UCF and they bring along a larger television market as well. The only thing that might hinder Houston is that they were hated during their days in the old SWC and those bitter feelings (from the likes of Texas, Baylor, and Texas Tech) might not be dead yet. The good news is that they are building a new on-campus stadium to replace the dump they use now and that their most hated rival (Texas A&M) has moved to the SEC and won't lobby to keep them out of the Big XII.

 

[leeanderthal]

I believe that within the next 24 months the power 5 will disassociate themselves from the NCAA. I also believe they may agree to the size (number of teams) for each conference. I believe they will expand further.
Also the ACC is heading for having our own tube channel ala the SEC and Big10.
This may turn the D1 world into a diferent animal. I believe it will force the other D1 schools into a lower classification. Maybe there will be an official reclassification.
I am not a guru and do not have any inside data. I have either heard this on the tube or seen it in writing on a number of occasions.It makes sense to me.

 

[vtpmt81]

Originally posted by Hampton Roads 6:

San Diego State is too far west for Big 12.


True - but WVU is too far east. I think San Diego State would be a good pickup.

 

[mrjolly01]

Originally posted by Hampton Roads 6:
Excellent post and observations. Personally I wish ncaa would eliminate conference championship games.. they are nothing but a money racket . and screw up balanced schedules within conference .

I not only hope they keep conference championship games, but that the winners get automatic playoff berths once the playoff expands to 8 teams. I believe the committee got it right this year by selecting 4 conference champions. What I don't want to see is 2nd place teams going into the playoff ahead of conference champions of another P5 conference.

 

[Hampton Roads 6]

The so called Power 5 are destroying college football, and other sports are next in line. A school like Central Florida or Marshall should have the right to win a national championship the same as the Buckholes from Ohio State, the Quacks from Oregon, or the #1 team in America, Alabama Crimson Tide. Just because some schools have more money and a bigger stadium, doesn't mean they should get any concessions from NCAA or ESPN.

 

[lucustookis]

TV market, Cinci is bigger than BYU? Dude, are you serious? Not close.

Cinci isn't the obvious choice. You stated BYU doesn't bring a big TV market? Compared to Cinci? The Mormons are now the fifth largest sect of religion in the U.S. They have millions of followers throughout the country and I have several Mormon friends. They watch BYU in football like going to Church.....meaning, even for the non-huge Mormon football fans, they watch BYU all around the country much like Catholics and Notre Dame. Add the millions of LDS followers watching BYU around the country with the 1 million people Salt Lake area and compare that to the 2 million people metro area of Cinci-Northern Kentucky and it is not close. The TV market favors BYU 5 fold and the revenue is literally 5 to 10 fold in favor of BYU added to the fact they have their own TV network and billions of dollars. As for sports team, and I am talking about volleyball, tennis, track and field, polo, swimming....it's not even close BYU is far and away heads above Cinci and the other teams named. Geographically is kind of useless at this point. West Virginia is in the conference. If the Big 12 will expand one direction, they will certainly expand the other, and if the epicenter of the Big 12 is Austin, TX, then dude, Proveo is about 1250 miles from Austin and Cinci is 1120 miles. Not much different.

Interesting, I just watched ESPN and whooollaa, the topic is already brought up 24 hours after I made this post and guess who the commentators all agreed was the obvious choice? BYU. It's a no brainer. Money talks and they have a national following far beyond Salt Lake-Prove. The commentators felt the second choice was Boise followed by Houston or UCF. Bottom line.....it comes down to the dollar and revenue. Cinci vs BYU is simply no comparison and when you throw in the competiveness of ALL sports team, it's no comparison.



This post was edited on 12/8 7:39 PM by lucustookis

 

[lucustookis]

Added to this, the academics of BYU is heads above the candidates

Add to all of this, BYU's academics are far better than a Boise, Houston, or Cinci. But the problem for Houston again like many of the others is.....OTHER sports. Volleyball, Tennis, Soccer, Polo, Swimming, etc....Again, BYU is far ahead of the other candidates in these areas.

 

[lucustookis]

Bingo....huge following

Some accounts say 8 million Mormons at least according to a couple of my LDS friends I play hoops with on Thursday nights, but they have a rapid following across the country not to mention many folks in Utah that are not all Mormon, but still watch BYU and that becomes about 10 million, and not just 10 million, 10 million that are pretty active in following BYU. The TV market compared to Cinci is not even close. 5-10 fold in favor of BYU.

 

[lucustookis]

Once again, other sports matter. It's not about just football and hoops

BYU has been historically better in hoops and football when combining the two sports compared to Cinci. No question, Cinci has been tough in hoops, but BYU hasn't not been shabby and their football program is heads above Cinci's historically. But again, other sports. Tennis, Volleyball, Wrestling, Soccer, Track and Field, etc. It's not contest in favor of BYU and this is the problem San Diego State has. They are just not good enough in football or hoops historically. Their other sports are actually better than Cinci's, but keep in mind, BYU has been in discussion with the Big 12 for nearly 2 years and playing games on Sunday is not a big deal. It's actually easy to schedule teams outside of one day of the week and that is often blown a bit out of proportion in my opinion. But again, everything comes back to the mighty dollar and that's why, BYU is the obvious choice.

 

[pckank1]

Originally posted by Hampton Roads 6:

Cincy would be a good choice, probably the best choice. I think UCF is too far away from Big 12 country.

Cincy is very much an obvious choice. The Big 12 has said they like
having WVU, but do not like having them so far from everyone else. In
addition to the other positives Cincinnati brings (Ohio, sports and market),
adding them gives the Big 12 a team somewhat close (300 miles) to WVU,
and they fit in nicely geographically between Iowa St. and WVU. This is
important to the Big 12 and makes a lot of sense.

I agree UCF would be
pretty far from the others, but getting into Florida could be important
to the Big 12, and if it came down to UCF and BYU, I think the Big 12
would rather have a school from Florida than a school from Utah. Plus, if they added BYU with Cincy, the positive of having Cincy close to WVU would be offset by the negative of having BYU about 2,000 miles away from Morgantown.

The bottom line is they need to get to 12, they have options, and they should do this sooner rather than later.

 

[bearcatgoliath]

Hey guys Cincy fan here First off I'm excited for our game, I think your defense can definitely shut our run game down. As for our aerial game that's a different story. Should be a close game. Since you guys are speaking in terms of realignment I believe I have some information you may be unaware of/ not heard. Cincy's president has been visiting many Big 12 presidents lately and it has been reported Big 12 officials have held talks with BYU and Cincy. As for what we provide here is the list. 5 of 7 seasons as Champions with 3 of those in a BCS conference. Top 10 all time basketball program statistically( here is the link) http://fansided.com/2014/10/21/75-greatest-college-basketball-programs-time-statistically-ranked/8/ . Also we have a top 35 tv market ( may have improved since last checked).. Also our renovated stadium is opening up for the 2015 season I will include a picture ( although not huge, vastly better than most other choices). Renovations to our basketball arena have been announced for the 2017-18 season. We provide a bridge for WVU with a heated rivalry already in place. On top of it all we have a good name coach in Tommy Tuberville who will be retiring here, and a modern history of great coaches such as Brian Kelly, Dantonio, and Butch jones all going to bigger jobs ( good and bad for us). Academically we have 45k students and are a top 25 research university along with many other great academics to add to the Big 12.
http://magazine.uc.edu/favorites/rankings.html as for our other sports we are competitive . So compared to every other school BYU and Cincy are the obvious choices. UH does not bring nearly as much as we do, we would bolster Basketball immensely since we are one of a handful of teams to not miss the dance the past 4 years. Also I can not remember the exact stat, but going into this season we are if i remember correctly the only team in the nation to have a basketball and football championship under our belt. So please I would like to hear your thoughts on all this, because I simply do not see how any other school even BYU adds what we can add in BOTH basketball and football. Thanks !

 

[Hampton Roads 6]

I would like to see Bearcats get in Big 12.

 

[SunnyBeachWave]

Originally posted by Hampton Roads 6:
I would like to see Bearcats get in Big 12.

+1

I'm very much biased though, from a religious perspective.

 

[Hampton Roads 6]

After reading an article in one of the papers today, I am not sure Big 12 is wanting to expand. They are getting 212,000,000 from NCAA and/or TV this season. They split it 10 ways, if they expand they would have to split it 12 ways. But then the Big 12 commissioner flip flops daily. One day they have co champions, one day Baylor is the champion. They do not know their own tie breaker format.

Put Big 12 commissioner, Emmertt, Swofford and Arkansas AD in a room together and then we can see why NCAA is so screwed up and money hungry.

 

[bearcatgoliath]

That is definitely a concern, what I would like to think is the added revenue from a championship game/better possibility of entering the playoffs coupled with more possible bowl eligible teams would be enough to offset the potential difference in revenue. One other thing is extending Cincy and BYU offers with them only getting 50% the first year 65% the next 75% after that and so on like they did with WVU. Also the Big 12 would benefit from entering the ohio fertile recruiting lands.