So, looking at some numbers here...

[hokiemtc]

Fuente was the co-OC at TCU from 09-11 when the Horned Frogs averaged scoring 38.3, 41.6 and 40.8 pts/gm. After two brutal start-from-scratch years at Memphis, his last two offenses averaged scoring 36.2 and 42.3 pts/gm. The five numbers I listed above gives his offenses a scoring average of 39.9 pts/gm over that time frame. If you include the rebuilding years, then it's about 5 pts/gm lower, but I'm hesitant to include rebuilding at Memphis in the same light as taking over at VT.

Since 2009, VT has averaged scoring 31.8, 33.9, 27.9, 25.1, 22.5, 24.1 and 29.0 pts/gm, for an overall average of 27.8 pts/gm.

This gives a difference of 12.2 pts/gm on average. So, what would our schedules have looked like since 2009 with 12 more pts/gm added in? Why, glad you asked...

2009 : 12-0 (8-0)
#5 Bama - W 36-34
Marshall - W 64-10
#19 Nebraska - W 28-15
#9 Miami - W 43-7
Duke - W 46-26
BC - W 60-14
#19 GT - W 35-28
UNC - W 29-20
ECU - W 28-3
Maryland - W 48-9
NCSU - W 50-10
Uva - W 54-13

2010 : 12-0 (8-0)
#3 Boise St - W 42-33
JMU - W 28-21
ECU - W 61-27
BC - W 31-0
#23 NCSU - W 53-30
Cent Mich - W 57-21
WF - W 64-21
Duke - W 56-7
GT - W 40-21
UNC - W 38-10
#24 Miami - W 43-17
Uva - W 49-7

2011 : 11-1 (7-1) *** no change...we were really good either way
App State - W 78-13
ECU - W 29-10
Ark State - W 38-7
Marshall - W 42-10
#13 Clemson - L 15-23
Miami - W 50-35
WF - W 50-17
BC - W 42-14
Duke - W 26-10
#21 GT - W 49-26
UNC - W 36-21
Uva - W 50-0

2012 : 8-4 (5-3) *** marginal improvement...it would've been a down year either way
GT - W 29-17
Austin Peay - W 54-7
Pitt - L 29-35
Bowling Green - W 49-0
Cincy - W 36-27
UNC - L 46-48
Duke - W 53-20
#19 Clemson - L 29-38
Miami - L 24-30
#10 FSU - W 34-28
BC - W 35-23
Uva - W 29-14

2013 : 11-1 (8-0)
#1 Bama - L 22-35
W Carolina - W 57-3
ECU - W 27-10
Marshall - W 33-21
GT - W 29-10
UNC - W 39-17
Pitt - W 31-9
Duke - W 22-13
BC - W 39-34
#11 Miami - W 54-24
Maryland - W 33-21
Uva - W 28-6

2014 : 11-1 (7-1)
Bill&Mary - W 46-9
#8 Ohio State - W 47-21
ECU - W 33-28
GT - W 36-27
WMU - W 47-17
UNC - W 46-17
Pitt - W 28-21
Miami - L 18-30
BC - W 43-33
#21 Duke - W 29-16
WF - W 15-3
Uva - W 36-20

2015 : 11-1 (8-0)
#1 Ohio State - L 36-42
Furman - W 56-3
Purdue - W 63-24
ECU - W 36-35
Pitt - W 25-17
NCSU - W 36-13
Miami - W 32-30
#23 Duke - W 36-24
BC - W 38-10
GT - W 35-21
#17 UNC - W 36-24
Uva - W 35-20

Combined record since 2009: 76-8 (90.1%)
Record against top 25 opponents: 14-4
Record against top 10 opponents: 5-2
Record against top 5 opponents: 2-2

Folks, 12 extra pts/gm on offense is a pretty big deal when you're swinging a Bud Foster defense. And the numbers above don't take into account any residual effects such as high level recruits WANTING to come play in this offense and to play for national titles, which would likely be the case.

 

[BigDaddyHokie]

I get what you're pointing out, but you can't just add 12 points to each game score. More goes into it.

For example, if you score quickly, you give the ball to the other team for a possession, your D does not rest, and you can't eat clock and limit their time of possession.

Beamer liked drives that each took 10 minutes and it's results.

 

[Salemite]

Folks, 12 extra pts/gm on offense is a pretty big deal when you're swinging a Bud Foster defense. And the numbers above don't take into account any residual effects such as high level recruits WANTING to come play in this offense and to play for national titles, which would likely be the case.

that use of stats is too screwed up for words

 

[hokiemtc]

that use of stats is too screwed up for words

You know what, Salemite is right. Sorry, guys, I don't know what I was thinking. 12 extra pts/game wouldn't make any difference in our records at all, I was just being a little optimistic.

 

[hokiemtc]

I get what you're pointing out, but you can't just add 12 points to each game score. More goes into it.

For example, if you score quickly, you give the ball to the other team for a possession, your D does not rest, and you can't eat clock and limit their time of possession.

Beamer liked drives that each took 10 minutes and it's results.

True, but conversely, VT getting out to leads in games makes the opposing offenses more one dimensional, which makes them easier to defend.

Winning helps recruit better defensive players, also.

 

[Salemite]

You know what, Salemite is right. Sorry, guys, I don't know what I was thinking. 12 extra pts/game wouldn't make any difference in our records at all, I was just being a little optimistic.

Wish I could understand it for you. Really, I do.

 

[Hampton Roads 6]

Just look at the games we have lost where one or two more TDs would have been a win. I hope we score so many points in the future that Coach Fuente doesn't even know the punter's name.

 

[hokiemtc]

Just look at the games we have lost where one or two more TDs would have been a win.

Which would include most of our losses over the last decade. I swear, some people can't see the forest through the trees. Why in the world someone would argue that 2 more TDs a game on average wouldn't help our won/loss record over the long haul is beyond me.

 

[Hampton Roads 6]

I can only recall a couple of games that we were really beat bad. This past season I think we only scored over 30 points 3 times, and one of those was against a FCS team.

 

[Hokie81]

You know what, Salemite is right. Sorry, guys, I don't know what I was thinking. 12 extra pts/game wouldn't make any difference in our records at all, I was just being a little optimistic.

More TD's for the home team is always better, would be game breaker in too many L's and would put more pressure on opposing team's Offense. Seems sound to me!

 

[SunnyBeachWave]

You know what, Salemite is right. Sorry, guys, I don't know what I was thinking. 12 extra pts/game wouldn't make any difference in our records at all, I was just being a little optimistic.

I understand what you're saying and agree, although it wouldn't equate to 12 pts realistically because of butterfly effect. But I know you know this and it's all in good fun. Hey I'm with you brother. I can't wait to see what ol' Coach 12pts can do. It's going to be fun around here for a long time. Might as well start having fun with it. I'm grateful for the position we're in. God bless him, but just think of what Weaver would have done. Beamer would probably still be here for one.

We should all be dancing and singing merrily around fire pits this week.

 

[hokiemtc]

Yeah, it wasn't a professionally licensed, NASA endorsed scientific statistical analysis or anything like that, just a thought stream. We've been saying all along that VT doesn't lose nearly so many games over the years if our offense could only find a way to score a couple more TDs per game. The D can stay the same. Even the special teams can stay the same. But 12 more points on offense gives you what you see above, which was the whole point of the post.

If the D can maintain it's average over the past 20 years and the O can figure out how to score between 1-2 more TDs per game, we're instantly back to being a 10 (or more) wins a year program that is playing for bigger prizes. It actually wouldn't take much at all to get back to that point, since we now have a guy who is very good at figuring out how to generate offense.

 

[BigDaddyHokie]

Although I think you can't just add 12 pts. per game for a statistical analysis, I would agree we lost way too many games by just a few points and we seldom got blown out like Miami this year.

 

[VT/UK Rondo]

Fuente will inherit a stocked cupboard of talent on offense. Much more than he had to work with at TCU and Memphis. I expect to see results fairly quick.

 

[mrjolly01]

He's got some work to do to get a couple of QB's ready to play winning football. I wouldn't mind seeing him bring in a graduate transfer who's ready to go.

 

[VA4VT]

He's got some work to do to get a couple of QB's ready to play winning football. I wouldn't mind seeing him bring in a graduate transfer who's ready to go.

If he can just get our friggin offensive line fixed, we'd be in much better shape. In spite of having some decent talent on the Oline the last few years, either by scheme, technique, or desire, it's greatly underperformed at times. If that had been addressed early-on, I don't think we'd have had the same results the last few years.

 

[Hampton Roads 6]

I think our schemes were bad the past few years. Too much subbing with skill players. Get 11 starters, line them up in spread, and move ball down field. I think we made it too easy for opposing defensive coordinators to game plan.

 

[hokiemtc]

If Fuente will just run North and South instead of East and West, we'll be noticeably better on offense before he even gets around to tinkering any with the passing game.

 

[VA4VT]

If Fuente will just run North and South instead of East and West, we'll be noticeably better on offense before he even gets around to tinkering any with the passing game.

I hope you don't get too disappointed, because Fuente believes in getting the ball to the perimeter quickly, and has said as much. My impression after watching a few videos of the Memphis offense is that they generally have fewer north/south inside runs than what VT was doing. I think the runs he does do to the inside are only to keep them honest and set up the perimeter gains. Just my opinion and maybe that was by design based on their personnel, but I didn't get a big north/south feel from the Memphis O that I've watched.

 

[hokiemtc]

I hope you don't get too disappointed, because Fuente believes in getting the ball to the perimeter quickly, and has said as much. My impression after watching a few videos of the Memphis offense is that they generally have fewer north/south inside runs than what VT was doing. I think the runs he does do to the inside are only to keep them honest and set up the perimeter gains. Just my opinion and maybe that was by design based on their personnel, but I didn't get a big north/south feel from the Memphis O that I've watched.

If the passing game is potent and competent, then I won't be disappointed by that style of running game. The real problem is when running is your bread and butter...and yet you run East / West. As a distraction, however, they can run diagonal or even in circles for all I care, it should all be equally effective at complementing the true strength of the offense.

 

[VT/UK Rondo]

Watch the blocking that his Memphis teams do.