Napier would be a dangerous choice and mistake. Here is why

[Fairlawncat]

You are going to see a common pattern of the many coaches that are supposed to be "the next hot shots, "or "genius's" at the non P5 schools that get a job at the P5 schools. The common factor in failures rests in two things. They had a small sample size (not many years at the non P5 school) and they had an elite QB for at least 2 of those 4 winning years. When you put those two together, you can get skewed numbers statistically. In summary, the sample size is to small. Add an elite QB, and you get what could be great records, but if the coach would have been at the non P5 school for 2 to 3 more years, you would have seen his true coaching abilities or lack of ability to win.

Herman at Houston- Only there for 2 years. 2 years folks as the Head Coach. 2 years is a couple of plays go your way and you get a solid record. It's not long enough to evaluate a guy's ability to win. He also had a top notch QB that helped that record. Texas took the bait.

Brown at WVU, and formerly at Troy. At Troy for a total of only 4 years, and a losing record his first year and in his last 3, he had a QB for 2 of those 3 years that actually made an NFL roster for 1 season.

Fu at Memphis. Guess how long? Only 4 years, and his first two seasons were losing seasons. He only had 2 winning seasons and guess what, a future NFL QB to help that record. Va Tech took the bait and fell hook, line, and sinker.

Napier at Louisiana. The exact same thing above. He's been there only 4 years as Head Coach. His first year record was around .500, and his last 3 years, a QB that is now projected by some to possibly go as high as the 4th round who has started there the last 3 years. See the pattern? It's fools gold in my opinion.

Now, Chadwell and why I think he's DIFFERENT. 10 year sample size, not 2 or 3 or 4 years, but a decade of sample size as a Head Coach and oh yea, he's won at 3 different schools at 3 different levels of college football. Greenville, Charleston Southern, and Coastal. When you have a decade of success, you have large enough of a sample size to rule out "good luck" or the effects of elite QB's. When you do it at 3 different schools and at 3 different levels of college football, it wreaks of his likely incredible ability to be successful at Va Tech.

Urban Meyer, I know, only 4 years as a HC before taking over Florida, but........he was at 2 different schools with 2 different QB's at Bowling Green and Utah. That's a bit different than just coaching at 1 school for 4 years, and lets be honest, Utah wasn't P5 yet back then, but they were kind of one of those 5 non P5 schools in the country that had P5 type status. Same thing applies to a team like BYU today. Yes, BYU is still non P5, but BYU's level of play over the past 40 years is one of those few schools that has the reputation or prowess of a P5, and of course they go in the Big 12 soon.

In conclusion, I know many of you like Napier, but I'm warning you, it's the EXACT same pattern as many of the one's above who have failed. It's almost identical. It's a short sample size and he has had an elite type QB, and it's the perfect setup. Could he be the next Frank Beamer? Maybe, he might do very well, but I'm just pointing out that his resume and patterns is near exact as the one's listed above who did not succeed. Chadwell on the other hand is a slam dunk for success. 10 years is simply to long, it's a large sample size that rules out statistical anomalies.

 

[VT/UK Rondo]

Would Chad Staggs follow him to Blacksburg or stay in Carolina possibly as the new head coach at Coastal. Hes been his DC for that whole time frame.

 

[Fairlawncat]

Would Chad Staggs follow him to Blacksburg or stay in Carolina possibly as the new head coach at Coastal. Hes been his DC for that whole time frame.

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[VT/UK Rondo]

If it is Chadwell I hope your right. A HC is only as good as his assistants.I think back to FUs hire. He brought Corny as OC and his other OC, Darrell Dickey might have been the real QB whisperer of the three.

 

[Fairlawncat]

If it is Chadwell I hope your right. A HC is only as good as his assistants.I think back to FUs hire. He brought Corny as OC and his other OC, Darrell Dickey might have been the real QB whisperer of the three.

There was no whisperer in my opinion. They got a 3 star recruiter that should have rated higher out of High School, and they lucked out and struck gold, and had elevated win/loss records for 2 short years at Memphis with losing records in the first two. I'm just daing this....hiring an FCS or non P5 HC with little experience is dangerous. We've seen how this usually plays out. A proven coordinator at an elite P5 BCS school is worth More in.my opinion than the FCS or non P5 Head Coach who has had a short run.

Chadwell, obvious exception. Why? Length of time. 10 years of success which is enough time to statistically wash out good luck such as getting a great QB or stumbling onto to a predominant junior and senior laden team for two years when those juniors and seniors started as freshmen, thus having a good record for 2 years like Fu did.

I'm not saying I don't like Huff. I do. I just think hes far riskier than some of those I named. Recruiting wise, Freeman at ND is elite. Grimes has proven to be elite in recruiting, OL play, and offense at literally 4 different schools over 10 years. That's one he'll of a sample size which reduces risk. Same for Obrien offensively. If we were to get Huff, we are doing absolutely nothing different than the current trend of hiring the hotshot at the non P5 school which for the most part, hasn't worked in college football. We are literally rinsing and repeating and doing the same thing we did, TX did, WVU did and hoping it works this time. It might work, but I'm just giving historical precedent why it hasn't worked.

 

[VT/UK Rondo]

Huff: seven 5stars, nineteen 4stars
12 of those 26 were from the DMV

Freeman: two 5stars, three 4stars
Only 1 was from the DMV.

If Freeman is elite, Huff is Godly as a recruiter


It's not all about what a coach did in the past because every situation will be different and it's not just the risky upgrades. Alot of coaches with P5 HC experience fail at their next gig. Some even fail then return to relevance at a different program. It's all in the fit.

It all starts with recruiting. It's the lifeblood of the program and the better the Jimmy's and Joe's, the easier the xs and os. With Locksley at UM, Bly at UNC, Pearman at Clemson etc...VT needs someone from the region that knows the culture and has the HS connections to help land these kids.

Huff is from the area, played in the area has recruited the hell out of the area, has played under some of the best HCs. So maybe Marshall isn't undefeated in his first season. He also has a starting Fr QB that has thrown for over 3000 yrds and starting Fr RB that has rushed for over 1000 yrds. His leading receiver is just a Soph so hes not inheriting talent, hes developing it.
I'm not against Chadwell but what happens if he cant recruit the talent to operate his scheme against P5 defenses on a consistant basis. Then what? He wont be recruiting 3stars and beating up on small schools with equal talent by outscheming them.

 

[Windows NT]

Huff: seven 5stars, nineteen 4stars
12 of those 26 were from the DMV

Freeman: two 5stars, three 4stars
Only 1 was from the DMV.

If Freeman is elite, Huff is Godly as a recruiter


It's not all about what a coach did in the past because every situation will be different and it's not just the risky upgrades. Alot of coaches with P5 HC experience fail at their next gig. Some even fail then return to relevance at a different program. It's all in the fit.

It all starts with recruiting. It's the lifeblood of the program and the better the Jimmy's and Joe's, the easier the xs and os. With Locksley at UM, Bly at UNC, Pearman at Clemson etc...VT needs someone from the region that knows the culture and has the HS connections to help land these kids.

Huff is from the area, played in the area has recruited the hell out of the area, has played under some of the best HCs. So maybe Marshall isn't undefeated in his first season. He also has a starting Fr QB that has thrown for over 3000 yrds and starting Fr RB that has rushed for over 1000 yrds. His leading receiver is just a Soph so hes not inheriting talent, hes developing it.
I'm not against Chadwell but what happens if he cant recruit the talent to operate his scheme against P5 defenses on a consistant basis. Then what? He wont be recruiting 3stars and beating up on small schools with equal talent by outscheming them.

Good post. Recruiting and high school coach connections in DMV are the keys to VT success. IMO

 

[GrahamHighGmen]

Huff: seven 5stars, nineteen 4stars
12 of those 26 were from the DMV

Freeman: two 5stars, three 4stars
Only 1 was from the DMV.

If Freeman is elite, Huff is Godly as a recruiter


It's not all about what a coach did in the past because every situation will be different and it's not just the risky upgrades. Alot of coaches with P5 HC experience fail at their next gig. Some even fail then return to relevance at a different program. It's all in the fit.

It all starts with recruiting. It's the lifeblood of the program and the better the Jimmy's and Joe's, the easier the xs and os. With Locksley at UM, Bly at UNC, Pearman at Clemson etc...VT needs someone from the region that knows the culture and has the HS connections to help land these kids.

Huff is from the area, played in the area has recruited the hell out of the area, has played under some of the best HCs. So maybe Marshall isn't undefeated in his first season. He also has a starting Fr QB that has thrown for over 3000 yrds and starting Fr RB that has rushed for over 1000 yrds. His leading receiver is just a Soph so hes not inheriting talent, hes developing it.
I'm not against Chadwell but what happens if he cant recruit the talent to operate his scheme against P5 defenses on a consistant basis. Then what? He wont be recruiting 3stars and beating up on small schools with equal talent by outscheming them.

Chadwell is a risk. Any coach we get is a risk. Huff can recruit, but what if he's not a very good x's and o's guy. <-----Mack Brown. Chadwell is the best choice I think. Chadwell's offense and Ted Lasso like positivity is infectious. Add his personality and his offensive system <----which is huge for recruiting, and he will recruit well. It's clear about his x's and o's, on field coaching ability. Chadwell is a slam dunk in my opinion.

 

[Fairlawncat]

If you have been coaching for a while like Chadwell (10 years as a Head Coach) and you've won and did well for about all 10 years, this is a tell-tale sign of one's ability to recruit. You can't win for 10 years and not be able to recruit well. Even if you are only a great x's and o's guy, you can't win for 10 years by being just an x's and o's guys. You will not be able to overcome the opposition for 10 years straight by getting by with x's and o's alone. You clearly have to be both, and I think Chadwell is that. He's both. I've watched Marshall some this year, I'm not sold on Huff's on field, x's and o's ability. Huff was at Penn State and Alabama (one or the other) from 2014 to 2020 with the exception of one year. Huff at Penn State, took over a lottery ticket, and again, here are the subtle details we have to look at before declaring "Huff can recruit."

In 2014 at PSU, they had just come off the disaster phase of Paterno and could recruit again. It was a golden opportunity at PSU because kids had transferred away and incoming 4 and 5 stars new they would play immediately. It's the perfect setup to skew results in recruiting. At Alabama, there needs to be no discussion. Bama recruits itself with 5 stars as long as Saban is there. They don't even need to send out recruiters. Kids come to them. I'm not saying Huff can't recruit, but I am just saying LOOK at the circumstances in the WHY or HOW he got recruits. Penn State, the detail I gave is one detail few would think about it, but it's kind of like Fu landing Lynch at Memphis. It was the perfect setup. Penn State in 2014 was ripe for recruiting conditions and anyone at Penn State in 2014 and the couple years that followed would have done well because of the circumstances.

 

[VT/UK Rondo]

So Huff recruiting is questionable because Bama and PSU recruit themselves yet Freeman is an elite recruiter because he recruits to Notre Dame?
I like watching Coastals offense. Its intertaining....going against 3star competition. As it stands Coastal wouldnt be that successful in the ACC going against bigger faster talent every week. Your not going to out scheme superior talent every week. That leaves the question...Can Chadwell recruit the talent to compete because hes not going to be able to compete in the ACC with 3star Carolina kids with few offers.
End of the day 1 Huff 2 Chadwell and I really dont want anyone else.

 

[Fairlawncat]

So Huff recruiting is questionable because Bama and PSU recruit themselves yet Freeman is an elite recruiter because he recruits to Notre Dame?
I like watching Coastals offense. Its intertaining....going against 3star competition. As it stands Coastal wouldnt be that successful in the ACC going against bigger faster talent every week. Your not going to out scheme superior talent every week. That leaves the question...Can Chadwell recruit the talent to compete because hes not going to be able to compete in the ACC with 3star Carolina kids with few offers.
End of the day 1 Huff 2 Chadwell and I really dont want anyone else.

Dude, come on man. Marshall is 7 and 5 for God's sake? They lost by 30 points yesterday. Consider what Doc Holliday did for years at Marshall, and in one season, they have their worst record in 5 years. You are literally hinging the Head Coaching Job at Virginia Tech on a guy who has not been a Head Coach for a full season? Huff, in his first full recruiting season will be 2023. Much of the kids in the incoming 2022 class were Holliday's kids, and yes, Marshall finished 36th, but they got that number by volume recruiting. They have no 4 or 5 stars and signed 28 kids. The amount of kids/volume gave them that number, the average recruit is only a 2.36 rank? There's nothing special about Huff in my opnion.

The real question equal to Chadwell, can Huff recruit at Virginia Tech without the confines of Nick Saban ( a program that recruits itself) and Penn State, a program in 2014 that recruits were beating down the door to play at because they new they play early. I just don't see anything special with Huff. Chadwell has out recruited, not just out schemed, but out recruited his peers in his conference. His personality is infectious.

 

[VT/UK Rondo]

Football 101:
How do you beat a high octane pass offense? Keep them off the field by controlling top and resting the defense.
Marshall led 14-3 until the QB was injured. The backup wasnt very good. After a turnover and a bunch of 3 and outs the game shifted to an offensive foot race. I watched the game. You could see the momentum shift. There was nothing Marshall could do.

FWIW...I dont think our friendly debate matters because I'm thinking it's not going to be Huff or Chadwell .

 

[Fairlawncat]

Well VT/UK, it's Pry. What do you think of Pry? Here's my thoughts. I posted this is another thread, but here's my take....

I'm happy with the hire. The good ole TYPICAL and CONVENTIONAL thinking of "lets go get the hot genius who is currently winning at the non-P5 school" HAS NOT worked. It just hasn't worked. It's been tried throughout the country 7 times by P5 schools the past 5 or so years and it's failed. I'm glad Whit went the other route. Get a PROVEN O or D coordinator at a top 25 power 5 program, and yes, Penn State over the past 10 years, is still a top 25 program whether Hokie fans want to admit it or not.

Pry's numbers on Defense speak clearly. They are proven. He's legit. He's also learned some under Foster and was mentored by Bud Foster over the years (long after leaving VT as a graduate assistant). Bud has a regular 1 on 1 conversation with him, so defensively, I'm not worried. Now....recruiting, offense, and running a program. Recruiting, he's recruited the he** out of Virginia. I think this is also a win. Now, this leaves offense and running a program. I trust Bud Foster and Franklin at Penn State who will always have a sound byte for his ear, so I'm not worried about the running the program/leadership/organization leadership issue either. The only question is......OFFENSE. This is the only box that is unchecked in my opinion. Pry's offensive guy, whoever that is, is critical. I hope he chooses wisely. Overall, I'm excited about the hire.

 

[VT/UK Rondo]

Well VT/UK, it's Pry. What do you think of Pry?

I feel like we went to Baskin-Robbins with a pocket full of money and come out with a single scoop vanilla cone.

Not a bad choice but I dont intend to stand around trying to convince everyone how great my vanilla cone is when I've had a year to research other flavors.

 

[VT/UK Rondo]

Napier already making Florida fans nervous with his recruiting philosophy and plans. The number of decommits is alarming as well. I'm beginning to think we dodged a bullet with Napier. FU 2.0?

 

[pahokie77]

I feel like we went to Baskin-Robbins with a pocket full of money and come out with a single scoop vanilla cone.

Not a bad choice but I dont intend to stand around trying to convince everyone how great my vanilla cone is when I've had a year to research other flavors.

But everyone knows vanilla is the no. 1 choice. Let's see how it goes for a few years. It took us 6 years to determine Fuente was not the guy. Pry should get a least 4 years. I still think we can win the Coastal next year. Maybe we can pick up a quarterback from the transfer portal and a couple of other key players.

 

[VT/UK Rondo]

But everyone knows vanilla is the no. 1 choice. Let's see how it goes for a few years. It took us 6 years to determine Fuente was not the guy. Pry should get a least 4 years. I still think we can win the Coastal next year. Maybe we can pick up a quarterback from the transfer portal and a couple of other key players.

I must admit, Coach Pry has won me over with his hustle. It's all about the right fit. I'm all in.

 

[Fairlawncat]

I must admit, Coach Pry has won me over with his hustle. It's all about the right fit. I'm all in.

Same here VT/UK