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Tunnel Talk: May 30, 2020

Welcome to Tunnel Talk, your regular update on behind-the-scenes developments in the world of Hokie recruiting.

Mattheus Carroll

I think there's a really good chance that Virginia Tech picks up its next commitment tomorrow. Baltimore (Md.) Gilman 2021 defensive end Mattheus Carroll will choose between the Hokies, Duke, and Maryland on his Instagram Live at 3 p.m.

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If I were to update the defensive line hotboard - and therefore my percentage on his recruitment - today, I would give VT an 80% chance of reeling him in, Maryland about 15%, and Duke 5%. I'm naturally an optimist (as you guys have probably observed over the past few years), but I'm also extremely realistic, and quite cautious when it comes to making predictions or spoiling players' moments. Within that context, the percentages there should say a lot.

I like Carroll, and I think he's a really good fit for what Virginia Tech has had at the DE spot in recent years, with some serious upside to explore when he gets to college (Gilman is still an outstanding football program, but it's not turning out the same level of finished-product type recruits that it was 4-5 years ago when Biff Poggi was the head coach).

Of course, "what Virginia Tech has had at the position in recent years" also means slightly underwhelming from a pass-rush perspective.

We'll have to see how much the revitalized defensive coaching staff can coach him up in that regard, while relying on his very solid ability against the run in the short-term (think of him as a version of Emmanuel Belmar with less physical development but more long-term upside). Either way, he's just one piece of the defensive end puzzle, and you'd certainly like to complement him with a guy who can provide that immediate burst off the edge in this class - with the caveat that VT's 2020 signees may be able to provide solutions there before we even worry about what 2021 prospects can bring.

Zach Hoban

Rice transfer kicker Zach Hoban has narrowed his list to two options, Virginia Tech and UCLA. Both of those opportunities are preferred walk-on slots, not scholarship, so if he does ultimately choose the Hokies, don't wear yourself out thinking about what it means for numbers: the answer is, effectively, "nothing."

He'll also have to sit out a year (barring a blanket waiver for all transfers nationally from the NCAA, thanks to coronavirus), and even if that ends up not having to happen, it would make sense - should he choose the Hokies - for him to redshirt and get a year of separation from returning starter Brian Johnson.

He's a New Jersey kid with some roots in Maryland - Dad ran track at Navy - so the East Coast makes more sense from a closeness-to-home perspective... but that also means UCLA has an exotic appeal beyond the typical in some ways, too. This one is going to be close, and he plans to make a commitment after visiting both programs.

If he ends up at VT, it'd be hard to characterize it as a program-changing - or even team-changing - commitment, but he'd be a nice special teams option.
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Mattheus Carroll making a commitment this weekend

Per @RivalsFriedman, Baltimore (Md.) Gilman 2021 defensive end Mattheus Carroll will be making his college commitment this Sunday.

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He's been inching toward a decision (to the degree that I probably should have placed him higher on the Sweet 16 this afternoon), but this is a little quicker than I'd expected.

As is pretty much always the case, an earlier-than-expected decision is considered a good thing for the longtime favorite. In this instance, that would be your Virginia Tech Hokies. Maryland has made a late run, and Duke's academics were always intriguing to him, but VT has the longest-standing and strongest relationship and the best combination of athletic and academic success that he's looking for.

I'll have more to come on this developing situation as the announcement grows closer.

Tunnel Talk: May 29, 2020

Welcome to Tunnel Talk, with the latest in the VT recruiting scene based on our discussions with contact, behind-the-scenes analysis, and more.

DJ Harvey

When several of his West Coast-based friends either committed to programs closer to home, or dropped the Hokies from their recruitments, I thought the same would happen with three-star DJ Harvey. It hasn't, though, and he remains intent on taking his official visit to Blacksburg.

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Landing the first player out of a region can be the biggest hurdle (though not the only one, as we've seen with VT actually losing their most prominent member of the #TX2VT mmovement after he'd encouraged other players to join it), and Harvey could open up the West Coast just a bit, especially because his Premium Sports LA friends would likely travel for unofficial visits whenever he takes his official.

The West Coast probably won't be a primary feeder of talent to Blacksburg any time soon for a variety of geographic (and even some cultural - it's tough to convince a kid from LA to fly across the country to play at a small-town school) reasons. But cherry-picking some players who could be convinced to make the move and using them to augment a more regionally-based recruiting effort could work out.

In-state recruiting

The Hokies' much-maligned in-state recruiting effort will largely depend upon improved results on the field this Fall. While the results in the Commonwealth are sometimes over-emphasized, it remains the point that spending time and resources close to home is typically going to have a greater return than far from home. As it stands, though, the Hokies are only in reasonable position for one of the top 15 this year: Virginia Beach Ocean Lakes LB/DE Naquan Brown.

Again, taking care of business on the field will change that narrative some. Five-star corner Tony Grimes may be too far gone, but a player like Tristan Leigh (while his family history with Virginia is likely to see the Hoos be the choice if he stays in-state) will at least give VT a closer look if the program looks headed in the right direction. That applies to the rest of the state rankings, too. Whether there's good enough organization on the recruiting board to take advantage of some of that... may be a question for another day.

Highland Springs High School in the Richmond area is one example of a program where the lack of a cohesive organizational effort has been a little damaging. I touched base with a few sources in the area close to that program, and here's what they said.

"There's too much talent, too consistently coming out of that school for Virginia Tech not to do well there," the source indicated. "It's not that they aren't trying, but it's a scattershot approach instead of entering the recruiting cycle with a plan, and letting that plan evolve if necessary. They can't just offer a guy when the out-of-state player at the same position commits to a different school."

That may be on the harsh side, of course, but there's a grain of truth to it (and it's similar to a thought I've had myself and expressed here somewhat regularly).

The source also noted - and I won't take the slightest credit for sharing this thought, though it definitely follows logically - that the lack of a camp season this Summer is particularly damaging to the Hokies, too. That's where they've done a lot of their in-state evaluation and relationship-building in the past couple years. How the coaches compensate for that is going to be interesting.

The 757

Let's drill down to a different specific part of the state. Based on on-field and recruiting-trail results in the past few years, I think it was fair for former running backs coach Zohn Burden to be let go. Running backs coach is typically a spot that (because the position is largely about talent, less than hyper-specific technique instruction) can be reserved for an ace recruiter. However, the tailbacks haven't looked good yet in the Fuente era, a lack that would have been excusable if the Hokies had been lighting up recruiting in the Tidewater area.

They weren't, so he was out the door.

Unfortunately for the Hokies, he's continued to build relationships in the region since being out of his college coaching job. If he'd had those strengthened bonds a few months ago, he may still be with the Hokies (and VT may have landed, say, WR KeAndre Lambert, CB Keonte Jenkins, or others from the Tidewater in classes before their 2020 group). Now, though, it seems that when he gets back into the world of college coaching - and it'll happen sooner rather than later - the Hokies will have to contend with the next evolution of Zohn as a competitor on the trail.

So how will they counter that? You'd be hard-pressed to find a guy more popular as a player than Darryl Tapp. A coach in the 757 isn't so sure how that popularity is going to translate to landing players from the area, though.

"Everybody loves DT," he said. "He was a great player, an NFL guy, all that. Kids are going to vibe with him. But will coaches feel like he's going to be ready to develop their players if they risk sending them to [Virginia Tech]? High school coaches want the best for their kids, and they're going to have to see results before they know what's what."

I think that's a little unfair to Tapp: I get that playing and coaching are different things, and being a teacher is the part he'll have to learn, but the techniques he's learned over the course of a long career are things that others may not be able to teach anyway. Add in that the coaching side of things also has a recent NFL assistant sharing the position group with him, and the relationship-building is the far more important part of Tapp's job.

You can look to a rival program to see an instance of success here: North Carolina has Dre Bly coaching cornerbacks in his first coaching gig. Jury's out on whether he's going to be a great teacher of technique, but he's a massively popular name after his NFL career, and has been an ace recruiter for the Tar Heels.

Tapp can do the same. I don't share the hesitance about him as a coach, but I'm not the one helping guide players where to go, either. The local decision-makers need a bit of convincing.
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NCAA announcement

I take it the NCAA announcement today doesn't bode well for the start of football season? I thought the earlier decision to allow voluntary workouts on campus might be a sign they would open things up and plan to start football on time, but to push back the dead period to July 30th, i gotta wonder if they are going the other way.
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