How Can The ACC Survive?
- The Gobbler
- 6 Replies
The ACC is a "dead man walking". Whether it's next week or sometime between 2030 and 2036 the realignment landscape has moved to a point where the ACC now sits in the crosshairs of future expansion moves by the B1G, SEC, and even the newly re-fortified Big 12.
If Jim Phillips has any "rabbits in the ACC hat" he better start pulling them out! Anything short of a miracle development will lead to the impending death of the ACC in similar fashion to what was witnessed last week in the sudden death of the PAC-12.
What are the ACC's options for any degree of long term survivability?
1. ESPN recognizes the revenue gap reality that ACC programs are up against, recognizes that two or more of the ACC's top brands can be lured away to rival FOX/CBS/NBC, and steps in with a renegotiated, higher revenue deal that closes the revenue gap, keeps the disgruntled ACC programs happy, and protects its own investment in the ACC, particularly the ACC Network which otherwise will be diminished or lost all together if a mass ACC exodus occurs. Disney owned ESPN is currently bleeding money, making massive across the board cuts to operating expenses and may not be in financial position to save the ACC's day even if they wanted to!
2, Notre Dame and Stanford join as full ACC members. Notre Dame is obviously the crown jewel of all college sports properties. They would trigger an immediate re-valuation of the ACC/ESPN revenue deal. The outcome would likely move the ACC into a financial position at least close enough to the B1G and SEC to keep all members happy and committed long term to the ACC. Stanford is the most valuable name brand still available and in need of a good landing spot after the demise of the PAC-12, They are widely regarded as the #1 institution of higher education in the nation. They would certainly be on a geographic island but with a $37 billion endowment they are obviously not cash poor with respect to the ability to handle increased travel costs. They routinely win the annual Director's Cup competition for overall national sports excellence. If their only other option is to re-align in some way with the MWC, I have a hunch the academic blue bloods at Stanford would much prefer to be aligned instead with Duke, UVA, UNC, and other ACC academic heavyweights rather than the likes of Colorado State, Boise State, and Wyoming!
3. Notre Dame giving up it's independence in football is about as likely as me winning the Mega Millions Lottery tomorrow night. While it would surely "save" the ACC, I don't realistically expect that to happen. That would indeed be Jim Phillips with a rabbit in his hand! You would hope the Notre Dame administration would see a "close friend" about to drown and throw them a life line. The ACC helped them out in a time of need for a home for all their sports other than football. From what I understand the relationship has been very collegial and of great benefit to Notre Dame. If Notre Dame was as driven by integrity and principle as they like to project to the world, you would think they wouldn't turn a blind eye to the ACC sinking under the waters of realignment. But principle and idealism left the world of intercollegiate sports a long time ago. So, a third option is to go after Stanford as stated above along with Cal, Washington State, and Oregon State. I'm not saying this is necessarily a "good" option. It's simply an available option! These four schools are in a tough spot. They can merge with some lesser west coast brands, but in doing so they will be relegated to Group of 5 status after operating for decades and decades among the Power 5. The benefit to the ACC is that it acquires four schools who at least provide a degree of brand name recognition as having always been among schools carrying the Power 5 badge of credibility. It would move the ACC to 18 member schools, providing the ACC with "strength in numbers" that might at least partially mitigate the future loss of 4-8 of it's current best brands to SEC/B1G expansion. It would also open up a late night time window for an additional ACC Network game and whatever modest incremental revenue increase that would bring. The geography makes absolutely no sense. But geography as a criteria for conference alignments seems to have left the building. Instead the new paradigm is brand acquisition. And these are the only current Power 5 brands readily available for acquisition.
4. Go on the offensive and "declare war" on the newly configured Big 12. Try to raid the Big 12 for West Virginia, UCF, U. Cinn, and any other solid brands the ACC could lure away. Sadly, the ACC is likely a day late and a dollar short on trying to execute this strategy. A couple of years ago we could have had any or all of West Virginia, UCF, and U. Cinn. Besides the financials, I suspect ACC academic snobbery was front and center in those considerations. I doubt we would have any Big 12 takers now, even from a school like West Virginia who has long coveted an ACC membership. Now the Big 12 is newly minted at 16 teams and is in a far more stable position than is the ACC. Why would you leave stable ground for a sinking ship? But the ACC has almost no choice but to try!
5. The only other option I see is PRAYER. Pray that the GOR holds firm and nobody can leave. Pray that Clemson keeps winning big. Pray that Florida State, Miami, and VT all get their act together and begin winning again at a high level. And pray that in so doing the ACC elevates its national profile enough to warrant a future television contract that will put the ACC on a somewhat equal footing with the SEC and B1G, eliminating the need or desire for anyone to consider leaving the conference. That would be the ultimate "rabbit in the hat"!
If Jim Phillips has any "rabbits in the ACC hat" he better start pulling them out! Anything short of a miracle development will lead to the impending death of the ACC in similar fashion to what was witnessed last week in the sudden death of the PAC-12.
What are the ACC's options for any degree of long term survivability?
1. ESPN recognizes the revenue gap reality that ACC programs are up against, recognizes that two or more of the ACC's top brands can be lured away to rival FOX/CBS/NBC, and steps in with a renegotiated, higher revenue deal that closes the revenue gap, keeps the disgruntled ACC programs happy, and protects its own investment in the ACC, particularly the ACC Network which otherwise will be diminished or lost all together if a mass ACC exodus occurs. Disney owned ESPN is currently bleeding money, making massive across the board cuts to operating expenses and may not be in financial position to save the ACC's day even if they wanted to!
2, Notre Dame and Stanford join as full ACC members. Notre Dame is obviously the crown jewel of all college sports properties. They would trigger an immediate re-valuation of the ACC/ESPN revenue deal. The outcome would likely move the ACC into a financial position at least close enough to the B1G and SEC to keep all members happy and committed long term to the ACC. Stanford is the most valuable name brand still available and in need of a good landing spot after the demise of the PAC-12, They are widely regarded as the #1 institution of higher education in the nation. They would certainly be on a geographic island but with a $37 billion endowment they are obviously not cash poor with respect to the ability to handle increased travel costs. They routinely win the annual Director's Cup competition for overall national sports excellence. If their only other option is to re-align in some way with the MWC, I have a hunch the academic blue bloods at Stanford would much prefer to be aligned instead with Duke, UVA, UNC, and other ACC academic heavyweights rather than the likes of Colorado State, Boise State, and Wyoming!
3. Notre Dame giving up it's independence in football is about as likely as me winning the Mega Millions Lottery tomorrow night. While it would surely "save" the ACC, I don't realistically expect that to happen. That would indeed be Jim Phillips with a rabbit in his hand! You would hope the Notre Dame administration would see a "close friend" about to drown and throw them a life line. The ACC helped them out in a time of need for a home for all their sports other than football. From what I understand the relationship has been very collegial and of great benefit to Notre Dame. If Notre Dame was as driven by integrity and principle as they like to project to the world, you would think they wouldn't turn a blind eye to the ACC sinking under the waters of realignment. But principle and idealism left the world of intercollegiate sports a long time ago. So, a third option is to go after Stanford as stated above along with Cal, Washington State, and Oregon State. I'm not saying this is necessarily a "good" option. It's simply an available option! These four schools are in a tough spot. They can merge with some lesser west coast brands, but in doing so they will be relegated to Group of 5 status after operating for decades and decades among the Power 5. The benefit to the ACC is that it acquires four schools who at least provide a degree of brand name recognition as having always been among schools carrying the Power 5 badge of credibility. It would move the ACC to 18 member schools, providing the ACC with "strength in numbers" that might at least partially mitigate the future loss of 4-8 of it's current best brands to SEC/B1G expansion. It would also open up a late night time window for an additional ACC Network game and whatever modest incremental revenue increase that would bring. The geography makes absolutely no sense. But geography as a criteria for conference alignments seems to have left the building. Instead the new paradigm is brand acquisition. And these are the only current Power 5 brands readily available for acquisition.
4. Go on the offensive and "declare war" on the newly configured Big 12. Try to raid the Big 12 for West Virginia, UCF, U. Cinn, and any other solid brands the ACC could lure away. Sadly, the ACC is likely a day late and a dollar short on trying to execute this strategy. A couple of years ago we could have had any or all of West Virginia, UCF, and U. Cinn. Besides the financials, I suspect ACC academic snobbery was front and center in those considerations. I doubt we would have any Big 12 takers now, even from a school like West Virginia who has long coveted an ACC membership. Now the Big 12 is newly minted at 16 teams and is in a far more stable position than is the ACC. Why would you leave stable ground for a sinking ship? But the ACC has almost no choice but to try!
5. The only other option I see is PRAYER. Pray that the GOR holds firm and nobody can leave. Pray that Clemson keeps winning big. Pray that Florida State, Miami, and VT all get their act together and begin winning again at a high level. And pray that in so doing the ACC elevates its national profile enough to warrant a future television contract that will put the ACC on a somewhat equal footing with the SEC and B1G, eliminating the need or desire for anyone to consider leaving the conference. That would be the ultimate "rabbit in the hat"!
