I see good things in a loss.

[VT/UK Rondo]

Re: I see good things in a lose.

25-6 overall (4-5 place in the ACC)
12-6 ACC
13-0 OOC
8 top 100 wins
4 top 50 wins
2 top 25 wins
bad loss @ Clemson (which isnt really that bad)

Once Buzz gets his players into the system, I think this is a very realistic expectation (basing it on this years schedule). The ACC has 10 teams with an RPI under 100 and VT played 13 games against them. Add WVU in the OOC and thats enough top 100 opponents without risking an upset loss to a 100 RPI team from an inferrior conference. Its going to be hard for the committee to leave a 4-5 place ACC VT out just because they didnt schedule Richmond or William and Mary.

 

[mrjolly01]

Re: I see good things in a lose.


Man... I sure hope we have teams that good year in and year out. A team that good could probably replace a couple of RPI +250 teams off that schedule with a Richmond and W&M and never bat an eye. Its the years we are actually a bubble team that doesn't go 13-0 against that OOC schedule and a couple less ACC wins that I would like to have a chance at wins over Richmond and William and Mary rather than wasted opportunities against the likes of Furman and Maryland Eastern Shore.

 

[VT/UK Rondo]

Re: I see good things in a lose.


IMO, Theres nothing wrong with this years OOC schedule. WVU(RPI 13) and N. Iowa(RPI 21). Two top 25 RPI wins along with an ACC schedule. That would be 4 top 25 wins and no bad losses. What hurts is schedule wouldbe cupcakes like Radford and App St and then losing to them. Im just not a big fan of scheduling "mid range" OOC opponents early unless your a perenial powerhouse and even then its dangerous. Look at how close a 13-15 Columbia team come to upsetting UK. It happens to teams early almost every year.

 

[mrjolly01]

Re: I see good things in a lose.


I don't think it makes much difference though in your example, other than to impact seeding. Take that same schedule and win-loss record, except substitute Richmond and W&M for two +250 RPI teams, and the worst case happens - we lose both games. So now instead of 25-6, we are 23-8, 11-2 OOC, and the rest of the resume is the same as before. We're still going to the NCAA. Richmond and W&M aren't bad losses.

But let's say we start again with your same 25-6 schedule, leave the OOC opponents alone, but lose either to UNI or WVU and 2 more ACC games. The resume becomes:

22-9 overall (6th or7th in the ACC)
12-1 OOC, but only 1 resume OOC win with all remaining OOC wins over nobodies
10-8 ACC
5 top 100 wins
2 top 50 wins
1 top 25 win

That's a more realistic result to expect in my opinion for VT, and a typical resume for last 4 in/last 4 out. Now we need a stronger OOC schedule to help get in, but we didn't play enough good teams. So we are probably heading to the NIT on that. But if we had replaced 2 nobodies with Richmond and W&M, and win those, we've boosted our top 100 to 7 wins, and although still a bubble resume, a stronger bubble resume than before with a better chance to get selected. And that's especially true if either Richmond or W&M are also bubble teams we own victories over in a head to head decision by the committee.
This post was edited on 3/9 11:34 PM by mrjolly01